US-Iran War Wraps Up, but Israel's Future Remains Uncertain: Tehran Announces a ‘Peace Deal’ Has Been Achieved

 "Stand Tall, Parthian Empire, Cyrus the Great! Iran Roars with Pride and Unyielding Strength in Safeguarding Its Sovereignty!

Dr Pamelia Riviere

After months of relentless conflict, more than a hundred days of war, a cease-fire agreement was finally brokered between the United States and Iran on Sunday. This pivotal moment opens the door for potential negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme and sanctions relief that could bring an end to the war that has tragically claimed the lives of 175 innocent elementary school children in Minab, Iran, alongside the thousands of other casualties among the Iranian and Lebanese populations. The military aggression exhibited by Israel and the US, targeting a sovereign nation, has not only devastated communities but has also sent shockwaves through the global economy, raising concerns over stability and security in the region. The international community's sympathy has largely tilted in favour of Iran during this chaotic conflict, marking a significant shift in the global balance of power and signalling a decline in the hegemony that the US and its allies, including Israel, have long enjoyed within the Gulf region. 

As Tehran announces the achievement of a preliminary peace agreement, Israel finds itself in a precarious position, feeling as if it is caught in a limbo regarding the terms of this newfound peace. The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, not just for the nations directly involved but also for the broader geopolitical landscape reshaped by this ongoing conflict.

The US-Iran war ends, but Israel is in limbo

The US-Iran conflict has concluded, yet the prospects for Lebanon and Israel remain unclear. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stressed that the US-Iran agreement should include Lebanon.

Tehran has declared that a preliminary ‘peace agreement’ has been made, but it emphasizes the Lebanon deal. Nevertheless, Israel feels uncertain about its status within this peace arrangement. After the peace announcement, Netanyahu said, “Our struggle has not yet ended.”

The United States and Iran have come to a memorandum of understanding to cease hostilities; however, Israel insists it will maintain its operational freedom in Lebanon, putting the agreement's stability in question. The arrangement was confirmed despite Israel's ongoing attacks against the Iran-supported militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon, as reported by Reuters.

As of today, Israeli shelling continues on the outskirts of Nabatieh, a major city in Southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera Arabic on 15 June 2026. 

According to the report of the New York Times, “Ironically, the very move that endangered the deal — the bombing in Beirut, ordered by a man who opposes the agreement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — hastened its signing and improved it for Iran.”

The Guardian reported that Trump earlier told the Axios news site that the Israeli strike had “delayed the signing by a few hours” and said he had told the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, he had “no fucking judgment.”

 The BBC echoed concerns regarding Israel's position on Iran and Hezbollah, noting that Israel claimed the deal "does not encompass Lebanon" and has persisted with military actions there, diverging from President Trump's demands for reduced military engagement. 

However, Israel was not a participant in the discussions that led to the recently announced US-Iran agreement, and its provisions have raised significant alarm among Israeli authorities. 

Mediation for the US-Iran agreement was facilitated by Pakistan, with both nations announcing an accord to permanently end military confrontations and lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian maritime traffic. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland, according to CNBC. 

Currently, the key issues involve reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting the development of nuclear enrichment capabilities. President Donald Trump has authorized the unrestricted reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has agreed to refrain indefinitely from nuclear weapons development. 

Ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah could endanger a complete ceasefire. Following the announcement of the peace deal, the Israel Defence Forces targeted Hezbollah positions in Beirut in retaliation for rocket fire directed at Israel. U.S. officials have cautioned both Iran and Hezbollah against retaliatory action to maintain the fragile peace, as CNBC reported. 

Although a preliminary peace agreement has been reached, tensions regarding the ceasefire persist. Iranian officials have called for a total ceasefire in Lebanon, but U.S. representatives acknowledge ongoing concerns related to Israel's potential military actions, as outlined by CNN. 

Trump’s threat continues. In an interview with The New York Times, President Trump indicated that if Iran does not finalize a nuclear accord with the U.S., he would reinstate military operations against Tehran or position the U.S. as “the guardian of the Middle East” in exchange for 20% of the region’s revenues.

 On June 14, according to the Times of Israel, Trump referred to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a “very difficult guy” and stated that the premier should express gratitude. “He’s a very difficult guy,” Trump remarked to the Times about Netanyahu, adding, “and to be honest with you, he should be very thankful to us for doing this. Because if Iran had a nuclear weapon, Israel wouldn’t be around for two hours.” 

As reported by CBC and other social media, the U.S. and Iran have come to an agreement on a draft memorandum for a peace deal that includes a complete truce. Israel was notably excluded from these negotiations and has declined to participate in the forthcoming agreement.

A historic moment awaits in Geneva to honour each other’s sovereignty

The US and Iran have reached a peace agreement, going to mark a historic occasion in Geneva. General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the chief Iranian negotiator, along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, will travel to Geneva to finalize the deal, according to two Iranian officials who requested anonymity. The signing of the agreement is expected to take place alongside Vice President JD Vance and mark a momentous meeting between Iran and the United States. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the subsequent seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, during which a number of American diplomats and personnel were held captive, the two nations have maintained no diplomatic ties. 

Importantly, the deal will also include a declaration that Iran and the United States will honour each other’s sovereignty and refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs, according to Araghchi.

No details of the peace deal

The New York Times reported on a US-Iran peace agreement, which aims to stop fighting for 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. 

According to the Guardian, “the memorandum did not appear to address the most contentious issues, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, which would be addressed during a 60-day period leading to a more comprehensive deal.” However, it leaves unresolved nuclear issues for later discussions. 

President Trump announced the deal's completion on social media, and Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed the finalization of a memorandum of understanding following extensive negotiations. The details remain undisclosed, but Trump indicated that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would lift, and the strait would reopen on Friday, allowing for the removal of mines. 

Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, announced that Iran and the United States will formally sign their agreement on Friday in Geneva, following last-minute negotiations mediated by Qatar. Key outcomes will include the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran and a resolution to the conflict in Lebanon. Iran’s commitments to the agreement will officially begin on Friday.

Reaction from the US and Israeli political leaders

The New York Times reported that many top Democrats and Republicans refrained from making public comments about the agreement. Those who did mostly adhered to their party's stance on the war. Hakeem Jeffries, the leading Democrat in the House, aimed to challenge Trump’s triumphant portrayal, criticizing the president for “recklessly” abandoning the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement and steering the United States toward war. Some of Trump’s supporters praised his skills as a negotiator, with Senator Rick Scott from Florida labelling him the “Dealmaker in Chief.” However, another Republican, Senator Lindsey Graham, expressed doubts about the extent to which the deal would eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina and a prominent supporter of military action in Iran, voiced doubts on Sunday regarding the durability of the terms related to Iran’s nuclear program, although he expressed satisfaction that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “I have some concerns that Iran’s interpretation of the agreement might differ from what the American negotiating team is asserting,” Graham stated in a social media update. He added. “Only time will reveal the outcome.”

Vice President JD Vance stated that the agreement with Iran could potentially "fundamentally change the Middle East for the next 50 years" if Iran adheres to the terms of the deal. He asserted that the arrangement would guarantee that Tehran "will never possess a nuclear weapon," which includes stopping Iran from "pursuing, procuring, or attempting to buy one." 

There has been no formal announcement from Israel regarding the agreement to cease hostilities with Iran, which President Trump disclosed on Sunday. Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, stated that it would bring an end to all military operations, including those in Lebanon, where Israel is engaged with the Iranian-supported militant group Hezbollah. 

However, Israeli media reported late on Sunday, just before the deal was revealed, that Trump had a phone conversation with Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has not been involved in the negotiations, and across the political spectrum, Israelis have expressed criticism of the agreement between the United States and Iran, according to the New York Times.

On the other hand, “Cyrus the Great” of Iran stands proud and resolute in defending its sovereignty. 

As reported by Arab News, Iranian authorities depict the peace agreement as a strategic triumph over the United States and Israel. Senior Iranian officials, including Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, have presented the deal as a strategic success and an affirmation of the country's resilience, rather than a compromise. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the memorandum of understanding could be a significant source of national pride if its terms—such as easing sanctions—are fully implemented.

The world feels relieved, but what did this illogical war accomplish?

The world feels somewhat relieved, but discontent persists among Americans, Israelis and Iranians.

According to The New York Times, many Iranians greeted the announcement of a cease-fire between Tehran and Washington with optimism, seeing it as a step towards negotiating a permanent peace settlement. For several months, the Iranian population has been caught in a state of uncertainty, experiencing neither full war nor peace, while grappling with a faltering economy. Moments after President Trump revealed the agreement, they flooded messaging applications with a mix of emotions. One Iranian rejoiced, exclaiming, “Thank GOD!” while another questioned the news's authenticity, asking, “Is this REAL?” Some seemed simply disheartened, with one commenter reflecting, “What did this war achieve?”

The New York Times reported that the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, expressed his approval of the announcement regarding the agreement between the United States and Iran, stating that the immediate cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are vital steps for achieving a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Mr. Guterres expressed his hope that the parties involved would leverage this new momentum and intensify their efforts towards a comprehensive resolution of the dispute.

World leaders welcomed President Trump's announcement of a deal to end the conflict with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for oil and gas transportation amid global economic pressures. 

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain called the agreement a significant step for regional stability, advocating for unrestricted navigation. After U.S. and Israeli attacks, Iran retaliated against commercial vessels, imposing demands for tolls, which the international community has resisted, deeming them illegal. Trump assured that the strait would reopen toll-free. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz both expressed support for the initiative, emphasizing its importance for global trade and regional security. 

Leaders from New Zealand and Japan also welcomed the development, highlighting its economic significance.

 However, many challenges remain, particularly concerning Iran’s nuclear program, which will be addressed in subsequent negotiations over the next 60 days. Qatar and Pakistan played key roles as mediators in these talks.

Trump and Putin recently discussed the peace deal in a “friendly” and “frank” phone call, addressing the U.S.-Iran memorandum and other international issues.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Director Sergey Naryshkin said on Monday that, despite a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, lasting stability in the Middle East is not yet guaranteed. He emphasized, "Peace remains fragile," as reported by Anadolu Ajansı.

However, Israel’s stance adds uncertainty, and the peace deal leaves major questions unresolved.           

The emerging deal between the US and Iran has sparked sharp reactions in Israel, with concerns over the lack of terms limiting Iran's missile arsenal and support for militant groups like Hezbollah. Following missile attacks from Hezbollah and increased Israeli military action in Lebanon, critics view the draft deal as a failure for Israel, with analysts suggesting that economic relief from reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be slow. Trump's administration faces internal criticism ahead of the midterm elections. Iranian hardliners also oppose the deal, claiming it does not ensure sanctions relief or control over the Strait of Hormuz, labelling it a capitulation.

The writer is a freelance analyst.