The United States continues its Covert and Overt Regime Change Operation in Iran for its own interests

The Carter administration played a role in facilitating Khomeini's return to Iran by preventing a potential military coup by the Iranian army. 

Dr Pamelia Riviere

The United States is currently engaged in a significant regime-change operation in Iran, signalling a notable shift in its foreign policy. This is not the first instance of such efforts by the CIA in Iran, as previous attempts have occurred throughout history.

The CIA conducted various covert operations in Iran, including the 1953 coup, known as Operation Ajax, which resulted in the overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. While specific figures regarding "overt" operations remain unclear, many significant actions have been carried out clandestinely. These activities included propaganda efforts under the codename TPBEDAMN, support for the SAVAK (the Iranian secret police), and the attempted rescue during the 1979 hostage crisis. Additionally, the agency has implemented programs such as Operation Merlin aimed at countering nuclear proliferation. Many of these operations were often disguised as film scouting or other cover activities.

Notably, this time, Israel appears to be actively participating by inciting internal unrest to encourage revolutionary movements within Iran. The effectiveness of Israel's involvement in facilitating a successful change in governance remains to be seen.

Iran's President has made allegations against the United States and Israel, claiming they are directly involved in the ongoing protests within Iran. He asserts that these foreign powers are stoking unrest with the aim of destabilizing the country. This statement comes as demonstrations persist across various cities in Iran. Iranian officials have consistently maintained that external forces are either orchestrating or taking advantage of the domestic dissent. These claims contribute to rising tensions among Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv, particularly amid a volatile regional and political environment. Backing from both the United States and Israel created a complex and volatile situation in Iran.

According to a report from Firstpost, Iran is currently experiencing significant internal turmoil as it enters the 13th day of widespread protests. These protests, initially sparked by anger over the country’s economic collapse, have escalated into nationwide calls for political reform and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Citizens are increasingly defying security forces, engaging in actions such as dismantling national symbols and taking to the streets, all while facing a government-imposed internet blackout. 

Even without online communication, the protests remain vigorous, with reports of burning vehicles, toppled statues, and intensifying confrontations with authorities. With casualty numbers on the rise and increasing global scrutiny, a critical question looms over the future of the Iranian regime: if the populace overcomes its fear, can the current government maintain its hold on power? 

History suggests that authoritarian regimes often struggle to survive such upheavals. 

The report outlines several key factors that can lead to regime collapse, particularly in the context of Iran today. It highlights that regimes often collapse when the economy is irreparably damaged, when the populace loses its fear, when security forces hesitate to act, and when protests maintain their momentum. 

Iran currently appears to meet at least three of these conditions: the economy is in crisis, citizens are openly challenging police authority, and protests are becoming decentralized, complicating the government's ability to suppress them.

However, a critical question remains: Will the protests escalate further? 

Assassination of Ali Khamenei and regime change 

 A significant escalation unfolded in the Middle East after Lindsey Graham cautioned that President Donald Trump might authorize the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei if the killings of protesters continue. This warning emerges as widespread demonstrations erupt across Iran, driven by economic decline and a falling currency. Security forces have reacted with mass detentions and deadly force, increasing the death toll. Tehran has now put the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the military on high alert, signalling a warning of retaliation. As protests escalate and tensions rise, Iran is confronting its most unstable situation in years, Firstpost reported on January 8, 2026. 

Aggression of America and Israel against Iran

Ruseme Parci, a senior lecturer at Lund University, shared insights in an interview with Firstpost on Iran's claims that outside forces are exacerbating domestic unrest. He acknowledged that while U.S. sanctions, originally imposed during Trump's presidency and prior to the nuclear agreement, have significantly impacted the Iranian economy, the underlying issues stem from internal factors such as poor governance and widespread corruption, which are primarily the responsibility of the Iranian government. Parci also noted the involvement of Israeli intelligence, specifically the Mossad, in supporting the protests and emphasized that Israel's presence in Iran, as revealed during last year's conflict, cannot be entirely discounted as an external influence. However, he argued that these factors alone do not fully account for the magnitude and intensity of the protests occurring in the country.

12-day Iran-Israel War and America 

The Iran–Israel war, also referred to as the Twelve-Day War, took place from June 13 to June 24, 2025, marking a significant armed conflict in the Middle East. This intense 12-day confrontation was ignited when Israel launched a series of air strikes targeting Iranian military installations and nuclear facilities, escalating longstanding tensions between the two nations. The conflict not only highlighted critical vulnerabilities in U.S. foreign policy but also brought to light the Islamic Republic of Iran's military capabilities, strategic planning, and ideological resolve, representing a pivotal moment in the history of the regime. 

Reports from Al Jazeera on June 26, 2025, detailed the rapid escalation of hostilities, emphasizing that Israel's preemptive strikes against Iran were conducted under controversial circumstances. Many international observers condemned these actions as violations of international law, with accusations that both the United States and Israel had crossed legal boundaries in their military operations. The war underscored the fragility of regional security and reignited debates over the legality and morality of preemptive strikes in international relations.

America’s involvement in Iran is not new

The CIA has a history of conducting various covert operations in Iran. In 1953, the CIA helped restore Reza Shah to power after orchestrating the overthrow of Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, who had nationalized the oil industry. The CIA and British intelligence feared Mosaddegh's actions, and the coup (Operation Ajax) restored the Shah, who ruled as an autocrat until the 1979 Iranian Revolution, when he was finally overthrown.

To truly understand the dynamics between Iran and the U.S. invasion, we must delve into the rich tapestry of history that shapes their relationship. Exploring the past will unveil the complexities and events that have defined this significant chapter.

In 1953, a pivotal event known as Operation Ajax occurred, where the CIA, in partnership with British intelligence, coordinated the ousting of Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. This intervention was primarily driven by Mosaddegh's move to nationalize Iran's oil industry, which had been under British control. As a result of the coup, power was restored to the Shah of Iran, a pro-Western monarch who benefited from the operation, allowing him to maintain his autocratic rule for over 25 years. 

Ayatollah Khomeini and the Carter administration 

Over time, many Iranians grew frustrated with the Shah's authoritarian regime, marked by corruption and close ties to Western governments, particularly given the stark inequality in wealth distribution despite a national oil boom. Additionally, newly declassified U.S. diplomatic cables have revealed significant communication between Ayatollah Khomeini and the Carter administration just prior to Iran's Islamic revolution. The Carter administration played a role in facilitating Khomeini's return to Iran by preventing a potential military coup by the Iranian army. Reports, including those from The Guardian, indicate that Khomeini made significant efforts to assure U.S. officials of the safety of American interests in Iran, particularly concerning oil, as he prepared for his return. 

Once, Khomeini was a friend of the United States, but now he is considered an enemy. The US has a history of promoting democracy in other countries while often acting in ways that contradict democratic principles. The situation with Venezuela's leader, driven by the desire to control oil wealth, is something the world has witnessed. Just as Britain and other colonial powers had to leave India, the US will eventually have to exit similarly.

The Johnson administration continued the Kennedy administration's support for Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi of Iran and its emphasis on buttressing Iran's internal security by encouraging a far-reaching program of political, social, and economic reform—the Shah's so-called “White Revolution.” 

It wasn't until 2013 that the CIA officially acknowledged its role in the planning and execution of the coup. Ultimately, in 1979, the Shah was overthrown during the Iranian Revolution, leading to the establishment of an Islamic Republic under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomeini.

The United States considers itself a world leader and a proponent of democracy. However, it often intervenes in other countries to seize their oil, minerals, and resources. Many view the US as an imperialist nation, acting as a new colonizer in a similar fashion to how Britain and other colonizers operated in the past. The US has formed alliances with other Western settler countries, such as Israel. For the sake of global peace, these alliances need to be reevaluated. The actions taken against Venezuela were observed worldwide, as the US sought to control its oil wealth, similar to its interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Libya. Now, the US is attempting to change the regime in Iran to capture its oil resources as well.

How are the world's players acting at this very moment?

In a dramatic turn of events, Turkish intelligence has been implicated in a daring Iranian ambush targeting infiltrating Kurdish forces. Reports emerging from the region reveal that Turkish operatives played a pivotal role in tracking a Kurdish paramilitary unit that crossed into Iran just last night. This group, believed to have backing from both the United States and Israel, found itself cornered when Iranian military forces acted swiftly, utilizing real-time intelligence provided by Turkey. This incident not only deals a significant blow to Turkey's influence in the complex web of regional dynamics but also raises serious concerns for operations linked to the CIA and Mossad. The implications of this collaboration could reshape the landscape of power in the region.

A report from Al Jazeera dated January 9, 2026, indicates that President Donald Trump of the United States has dismissed the possibility of a meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, implying that Washington is not prepared to endorse a successor to the Iranian regime in the event of its downfall. 

On Thursday, Trump described Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah, who was ousted during the Islamic revolution of 1979, as a "nice person." However, Trump noted that it would not be appropriate for him to meet with Pahlavi in his capacity as president. Pahlavi, who resides in the US and has strong connections to Israel, heads the monarchist faction within the divided Iranian opposition. Previously, the US president had issued a warning that he would take action if the Iranian government targeted demonstrators. He reiterated this threat on Thursday.

 In addition to its political and economic turmoil, Iran has also encountered environmental challenges, notably severe water shortages, which have intensified domestic discontent. Furthermore, Iran's foreign policy has suffered significant setbacks as its network of allies has diminished over the last two years. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah has been weakened by strikes from Israel; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by US forces. Nonetheless, Iran’s leaders have consistently disregarded US threats. 

To conclude the discussion of the US’s dubious foreign policy toward Iran and Israel, let’s consider what Avi Shlaim thinks. He is a historian of Iraqi Jewish descent who holds both Israeli and British citizenship. He provides critical insights into the nuclear positions of Israel and Iran. Shlaim highlights important questions about the discourse on these two nations, including the prevalence of misinformation, double standards, and hypocrisy in international relations. 

He notes that Iran has not engaged in military aggression against its neighbours, while Israel has a history of military actions in the region. For the past 40 years, Israel has been accused of systematically disseminating disinformation about Iran. While Iran has signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and submits to inspections by international authorities, Israel has not signed the treaty and has resisted similar oversight. This dynamic has contributed to the perception that Israel poses an existential threat to Iran. 

The writer is a freelance analyst.