Two-Week Ceasefire: A Fractured Peace Amidst High Tensions Between the US and Iran 

Dr Pamelia Reviere

In a surprising turn of events, a two-week ceasefire has been announced, yet deep-rooted distrust lingers between the United States and Iran. As both nations attempt to navigate the choppy waters of diplomacy, the air remains thick with skepticism and unresolved tensions. Will this temporary pause pave the way for meaningful dialogue, or is it just another fleeting moment in a long history of conflict?

US President Donald Trump has publicly announced his agreement to a proposed two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, contingent upon the resumption of shipping traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This announcement comes amidst escalating tensions in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has conveyed Iran’s willingness to engage in a ceasefire, stating that the country is prepared to comply "if attacks against Iran are halted," indicating a potential mutual interest in de-escalation. The situation intensified, culminating in a tight 20:00 EDT (01:00 GMT) deadline that Trump imposed for an agreement.

 The United States and Iran ultimately reached consensus on this ceasefire proposal on Tuesday, just under two hours before Trump’s deadline, which he emphasized by declaring that failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could result in catastrophic consequences for "a whole civilization." 

Pakistan has played a crucial role as a mediator in these negotiations, actively facilitating dialogue between the two countries. The Pakistani government has appealed to Trump to extend the agreement's deadline by an additional two weeks and has invited representatives from both sides to Islamabad for discussions scheduled for Friday, as reported by the BBC. 

In a recent social media post, President Trump reiterated his commitment to de-escalation, affirming he would refrain from carrying out threatened military actions against Iranian infrastructure for the two-week duration of the ceasefire, provided that Iran allows access through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire arrangement also has implications for Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have been engaged in hostile exchanges with Israeli forces. It has been confirmed by two White House officials, in a report by Reuters, that Israel has also consented to this temporary ceasefire and will suspend its ongoing bombing campaign targeting Iran, as noted by CBC. This multifaceted agreement represents a significant step towards reducing tensions in an already volatile region.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to the Ceasefire Proposal

 Iran's foreign minister released a statement affirming that the nation has accepted the ceasefire offer. Abbas Araghchi mentioned that Iran will halt its defensive operations as long as Israel and the U.S. cease their attacks. The minister noted that Iran's armed forces will ensure safe passage through the strait during the two-week period. 

Iran's National Security Council announced it has accepted the plan with the consent of its new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. 

CBC reported that while Trump and Iran's leaders may not align on many issues, the Strait of Hormuz remains crucial to both parties. For Iran, it serves as leverage. The flow of oil through the strait has nearly stopped, causing a 50 percent rise in Brent crude prices since the conflict began, with analysts warning that it is likely to rise further. Trump aims to resume ship movements through the critical chokepoint to begin reducing gasoline prices in the U.S. However, this will take time. The website marinetraffic.com shows approximately 1,500 vessels, many tankers, off the coasts of Oman and the U.A.E., awaiting the strait to become safe again.

A question arises: the Hormuz Strait will be accessible, but what about the nuclear enrichment agreement? 

Iran's 10-Point Plan: Acceptance of Enrichment 

The English version is lacking the phrase regarding acceptance of enrichment. As per state media reports, Iran will agree to conclude the war only after the details are finalized according to a 10-point peace initiative allegedly presented to the White House through Pakistani intermediaries. The list of ten points shared by Iranian state media includes several demands that the US has previously rejected. The proposal stipulates: The removal of all primary and secondary sanctions imposed on Iran. Ongoing Iranian authority over the Strait of Hormuz. The withdrawal of US military forces from the Middle East. A cessation of attacks on Iran and its allies. The unfreezing of Iranian assets. A UN Security Council resolution that would make any agreement legally binding. In the Farsi version, Iran also included the term “acceptance of enrichment” pertaining to its nuclear program. However, that phrase was absent from the English translations provided by Iranian diplomats to journalists, according to a Guardian report. 

According to a report by CBC, President Donald Trump recently announced a pause in his threats to escalate military action against Iran. He attributed this change in stance to a 10-point proposal put forth by the Iranian regime. In his statement, Trump referred to the plan as "a workable basis on which to negotiate," suggesting that it opened a pathway for future discussions. On the same day the U.S. received Tehran's proposal, Trump described it as "a significant step" toward diplomacy, though he noted it still fell short of his expectations, calling it "not good enough." The key elements of the Iranian plan include several ambitious proposals to alleviate tensions and address longstanding conflicts. Notably, it calls for financial compensation to Iran to cover damages incurred during various conflicts, particularly those associated with U.S. military actions in the region. Additionally, the plan demands the complete lifting of all economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran, which have heavily impacted its economy. Another critical component of the proposal is the call to release all Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks. This move is intended to restore Iran's access to funds frozen under international sanctions. Furthermore, the proposal outlines the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from all military bases in the region, signalling a significant shift in U.S. military engagement in the Middle East.

 The plan also emphasizes an end to ongoing hostilities, advocating for a ceasefire that would allow both sides to negotiate peace. In terms of maritime security, the Iranian proposal includes provisions for "controlled transit" through the strategically significant Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital passageway for global oil transportation. This controlled transit would necessitate coordination with Iranian armed forces to ensure that all shipping activities are monitored. In return for this access, Iran intends to levy a $2 million fee per vessel for passage through these waters, a point noted by the New York Times. 

Overall, while the proposal presents a framework for potential dialogue and conflict resolution, it remains to be seen how the U.S. and its allies will respond to these demands, especially considering the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear program and regional ambitions.

Distrust Between the US and Iran

Despite the recent two-week ceasefire aimed at easing tensions, profound distrust lingers between the United States and Iran. Each time negotiations have been attempted, there have been alarming escalations, marked by Israeli and American airstrikes targeting Iranian positions. These military actions have included the assassination of key Iranian figures, such as high-ranking officials and scientists, which has severely undermined the trust necessary for productive dialogue. The cycle of violence and retaliation continues to cast a shadow over diplomatic efforts, raising concerns about the future of peace negotiations and the possibility of a lasting resolution.

There is a significant deficit of trust between Iran and the United States, particularly regarding negotiations around Iran's nuclear program. Iran insists on adherence to the terms of Obama's nuclear deal and has presented a series of demands that the U.S. has historically found unacceptable. 

Despite recent negotiations, both sides have struggled to find common ground, especially given the recent history of conflicts erupting during talks. Iran is in a precarious situation, with a weakened military and a struggling economy. The regime is facing internal dissent, leading to harsh measures, including the execution of protesters arrested during recent unrest. This environment has prompted the Iranian government to tighten its grip on power while simultaneously pushing for assertive demands in negotiations. The U.S. has indicated a willingness to accept a ceasefire, provided there is free traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. 

However, Iran's insistence on controlling maritime traffic in that region poses a major obstacle. Additionally, negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program are fraught with difficulty, as the Iranian media reports a U.S. willingness to allow enrichment within Iran, a claim that the U.S. disputes, maintaining that no enrichment should occur. Overall, the path forward remains complex and challenging for both nations.

There is Optimism, but Worries Persist

 Trump’s message states that his rationale for consenting to the pause is that the U.S. has "already met and surpassed" all its military goals and is "well on its way" to reaching a long-term peace agreement with Iran. He mentioned that the U.S. "received a 10-point proposal from Iran and believes it is a feasible foundation for negotiations." Payam Akhavan, the human rights chair at Massey College in Toronto, noted that a ceasefire is "undoubtedly a positive development" that will provide significant relief to hundreds of thousands, though he expressed ongoing concerns about Iran's future and the global order beyond the next two weeks. "There are persistent issues that need to be addressed, particularly the democratic transformation of Iran by its citizens. 

Additionally, there is the broader question of what type of leadership will emerge at a time when the international rule of law is increasingly at risk," he elaborated. "This type of bullying diplomacy cannot be sustained indefinitely." Nonetheless, Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, expressed gratitude that both nations had accepted the ceasefire proposal. "Both sides have shown remarkable prudence and insight and have remained productively engaged in promoting peace and stability," his statement said. Sharif also extended an invitation to American and Iranian leaders to Islamabad on Friday to "continue negotiating" a long-term peace arrangement.

 The Guardian reported that Amir-Saeid Iravani, Iran’s representative at the UN, claimed that Trump’s threats amounted to “encouragement of war crimes – and possibly genocide.” During a security council meeting concerning the Strait of Hormuz, Iravani stated: "Iran will not remain passive in the face of such blatant war crimes. It will exercise its inherent right to self-defence without hesitation and will respond with immediate and proportional measures." Through his spokesperson, UN Secretary-General António Guterres reminded on Monday that international law prohibits attacks on civilian infrastructure, yet Trump declared on the same day that he was “not at all” worried about being labelled a war criminal. Trump’s declaration of the ceasefire agreement arrived less than two hours before the self-imposed deadline he set at 8 PM Eastern time to bomb Iran’s power facilities and bridges—a course of action legal scholars, officials from multiple nations, and the Pope had warned could be considered war crimes. 

Trump wrote in a post that “conditional upon the Islamic Republic of Iran consenting to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to halt the bombing and attacks on Iran for a two-week period.” During those two weeks, Trump expressed optimism that the U.S. and Iran could negotiate on a 10-point proposal from Tehran to facilitate the finalization of an armistice. “This will be a mutually agreed CEASEFIRE!” he added. “The motivation behind this is that we have already achieved and surpassed all Military objectives and are making significant progress towards a definitive Agreement for Long-term PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East.”

The world is watching eagerly, hoping that the US President stays true to his commitment to fostering long-term peace in the Middle East.

The writer is a freelance analyst.