A New Paradigm Evolved: Are the U.S. and Iran on the Brink of a Historic Deal or Sliding Back into Conflict?

The U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran transformed the International System and shifted it to a new paradigm.

Dr. Pamelia Riviere 

The U.S.-Israel assault on Iran marked a pivotal shift in the global landscape. Under mounting pressure, Trump found himself compelled to revise his strategy and bring an end to the conflict. On February 28, 2026, joint military strikes conducted by the United States and Israel targeted Iran, resulting in significant military damage and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This action drew widespread condemnation, concern, and opposition from various countries in Europe and Asia. 

The world has reacted to the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran

 On March 1, 2026, the BBC reported that Trump called for the Iranian people to rise up and for government forces to surrender following what Israel referred to as a "preemptive attack."

The Russian government condemned the attack, branding it an "unprovoked armed attack" and an act of "armed aggression" against a sovereign nation. European reactions to recent military strikes were largely critical, particularly from Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez condemned the actions as an "extraordinary mistake" and rejected any unilateral military involvement. Spain also denied requests from U.S. forces to use its bases for operations against Iran. 

Russia similarly denounced the attack, labelling it an "unprovoked armed attack" and an act of aggression against a sovereign nation. Within the European Union, while some leaders showed caution, U.S. support for the idea of regime change, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and the European Council highlighted the situation’s perilous nature and called for maximum restraint, prioritizing civilian safety and adherence to international law. 

Norway's Foreign Minister stressed that the strikes were inconsistent with international law, and public opinion reflected widespread opposition to the intervention, particularly in Germany, Italy, and the UK, with 68% of Spanish respondents against it. 

In Asia, reactions were similarly critical. China expressed serious concern and stressed the importance of respecting Iran's sovereignty, calling for an immediate halt to military actions. Malaysia and Brunei condemned the strikes as violations of international law and urged restraint from all parties involved. Pakistan denounced the attacks and called for a return to diplomatic efforts, while Indonesia offered to mediate discussions between Iran and the U.S. 

Timor-Leste's President José Ramos-Horta accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the UN Charter and international law. Key regional concerns included energy security, as countries like Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam worried about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Gulf and the safety of their citizens amid escalating tensions. There were widespread fears across Europe and Asia of a broader, uncontrollable regional conflict, as reported by various news outlets.

Attacks on Iran transformed the International System and shifted it to a new paradigm

The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran marked a significant turning point in the global landscape, ushering in a dramatic shift to a new paradigm in international relations.

Countries from Poland to Turkey and from South Korea to Japan are getting involved against the war in Iran. As mentioned above, even Asian nations are joining European countries like Spain, Italy, and Germany in this shift. This is particularly noteworthy because Germany has historically given Israel a free pass, feeling that it cannot and should not criticize. However, criticism is starting to emerge from there as well. Let's start with Poland: A Polish MP displayed the Israeli flag, but it looked a little different. Polish MP shows Israeli flag with Nazi swastika in the middle. 

A member of the Polish parliament referred to Israel as a "New Third Reich" during the March of the Living event on Tuesday. Konrad Berkowicz exhibited the Nazi swastika at the Sejm (“parliament”) on the same day. He asserted that Israel is accountable for a death rate among Gaza children “greater by the dozens” than that of children in Ukraine amidst the ongoing Russian invasion. “Israel is the new Third Reich,” Berkowicz declared, while displaying a blue-and-white flag that had the Star of David replaced with the Nazi symbol. Nonetheless, his actions drew prompt condemnation from the House Speaker and other members of Parliament in attendance. According to Polish law, displaying Nazi symbols is illegal, as is publicly disrespecting another nation's flag, as reported by the Jerusalem Post.

Georgia Meloni is the right-wing Prime Minister of Italy. Recently, she has spoken out against Israel, accusing the country of crossing a moral red line. She emphasizes that responses to acts of aggression must always adhere to the principle of proportionality. This principle applies not only to individuals but even more so to states. Israel, she argues, has clearly exceeded this limit with a large-scale war that disproportionately impacts the Palestinian civilian population. 

Meloni insists that Israel has violated humanitarian norms and caused a civilian massacre, a choice that Italy finds unacceptable. Consequently, Italy plans to support some of the sanctions proposed by the European Commission against Israel. Italy is committed to supporting efforts aimed at serioU.S.ly addressing the release of hostages and achieving a permanent ceasefire, which should exclude Hamas from any governmental role in Palestine. She highlights the need for Israel to withdraw from Gaza and calls on the international community to take charge of the post-ceasefire phase, ultimately working toward the realization of a two-state solution. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has openly criticized Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, marking a notable change in his relationship with this key European ally. In a scathing rebuke, Trump expressed his disappointment in Meloni, stating, “I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage. I was wrong.” This criticism arose after Meloni condemned Trump's remarks about Pope Leo and opposed his proposed military action against Iran. Trump accused Meloni of not supporting U.S. initiatives on energy security and suggested that she expected the United States to handle her country's challenges. He remarked, “They pay the highest energy costs in the world and are not even ready to fight for the Strait of Hormuz... They depend on Donald Trump to keep it open.”

Belgian authorities recently intercepted two shipments of British military components at Liège Airport. This action was taken due to violations of export controls and a prohibition on the transit of military equipment to conflict zones. The seized cargo included fire control systems and components intended for aircraft, which has led to a criminal investigation regarding the undocumented shipment originating from the UK. Among the companies implicated is Moog, an American aerospace firm that operates factories in Britain. According to Declassified reports, items linked to the company's factory in Wolverhampton were sent to Israel via Belgium last December. Moog is known for manufacturing actuators for the M-346 aircraft, which are used to train Israeli pilots, as noted by the Middle East Eye.

Condemnation has increased: Israeli actions in Palestine, as has the Holocaust

The Iran war raised questions about Israel’s atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank. However, many believe that a two-state solution is increasingly unlikely. Some argue that Israel needs to be held accountable in a manner similar to how Nazi Germany was dealt with, stating that the ideology of Zionism should be eradicated as it is viewed as a source of death and destruction—a mentality akin to terrorism and no different from Nazism. Interestingly, even Germany, which typically refrains from criticizing Israel, has shown concern. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has expressed deep concern about developments in the Palestinian territories. 

In a conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, he insisted that there should be no de facto annexation of the West Bank. 

This mild statement elicited a strong negative reaction from Israeli officials. For instance, Bezalel Smotrich reacted strongly, saying that on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day, the German Chancellor should apologize profusely on behalf of Germany instead of morally lecturing Israel about its actions. This reaction highlights the deep sensitivities surrounding the Holocaust and ongoing tensions.

Erdogan stated that just as Hitler was stopped 70 years ago by the United Front of Humanity, Netanyahu and his network of violence must also be halted by a global alliance of humanity. This statement upset Netanyahu, who is now targeting Turkey, portraying it as the new Iran. 

South Korea expressed concern about Netanyahu's actions. Why did South Korea, one of America's closest allies, publicly condemn Israel's actions in the Middle East? Recently, the South Korean president posted a video clip showing Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) kicking a Palestinian off a roof. The president has sparked global controversy by comparing Israeli actions in Palestine to the HolocaU.S.t, drawing strong backlash from Israeli groups and supporters worldwide. In his statement, he claimed that the killings carried out by Israeli forces during the conflict are no different from the atrocities committed by the Nazis during World War II. 

He also shared a disturbing video from 2024 that allegedly shows a Palestinian being assaulted and thrown from a building by Israeli soldiers. This remark came on a day when Israelis were observing Holocaust remembrance, intensifying reactions. While he did not directly address the tensions involving Iran and the United States, he noted that the Korean people are also facing national hardships. 

Commentator Toru Tamagawa, appearing on Friday’s broadcast of TV Asahi’s Hatori Shinichi Morning Show, questioned whether the special envoy’s Jewish background should have disqualified him from participating in U.S.-Iran talks. “It just looks like he’s there as a representative of the Trump family, and moreover, he’s Jewish, isn’t he?” Tamagawa said. “Regarding these talks with Iran, I feel he’d be better off not being there. I’ve always wondered what kind of person he is, coming in as the son-in-law.” Even Asian countries are now speaking out against the atrocities committed by Israel. This shows that the world has truly awakened to the heinous crimes being perpetrated.

Keir Starmer has stated that he "will not succumb" to Donald Trump's threats to terminate a historic trade agreement between the UK and the U.S., as tensions between the two leaders escalate over the conflict in Iran. In a renewed criticism of the Prime Minister, Trump, who remains furious about the UK’s refusal to engage in the conflict, remarked that the trade deal "can always be altered" and characterized the unique relationship between the nations as being in a "sad" condition. He also criticized what he called "tragic" mistakes concerning oil drilling in the North Sea and condemned the UK's immigration policies as "insane." 

However, Sir Keir responded, telling members of Parliament that his position on the war would remain unchanged, despite facing "pressure" from the White House. He stated, "My stance on the Iran war has been clear from the beginning. We are not going to be dragged into this conflict. It is not our war." U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to reconsider a historic trade agreement with the UK as relations between the two countries become strained amid the ongoing conflict. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has firmly resisted pressure from Donald Trump, asserting that Britain will not become involved in the Iran war. While addressing Parliament, Starmer emphasized, "It is not our war," and assured that he will not relent despite escalating tensions and U.S. disapproval. Earlier, Trump had warned of a possible reassessment of the UK-U.S. trade deal, heightening diplomatic strain. 

U.S. Senate discussions are currently focused on votes aimed at blocking the allocation of nearly half a billion dollars for military aid, specifically bombs and bulldozers, to Israel. Many U.S. taxpayers are expressing concern about Prime Minister Netanyahu's controversial actions, which they consider extreme and illegal. There is a growing sentiment that Congress must reassess its financial support, amid fears of enabling further conflict. Critics argue that Netanyahu's approach has escalated tensions not only in Gaza but also extends into regional conflicts, including Lebanon and with Iran. Prominent voices, such as Senator Bernie Sanders, are advocating for Congress to heed the concerns of the American public and reconsider the provision of military aid to the current Israeli government, which they characterize as extremist. The discussion emphasizes the need to reevaluate U.S. involvement and support in the region.

Are the U.S. and Iran close to a deal or to renewed fighting?

Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to recent Israeli attacks on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. This move raises concerns about the stability of a fragile ceasefire that was intended to end over a month of conflict in the region. Both the U.S. and Iran had initially declared victory following the ceasefire agreement, which brought some relief to world leaders amid ongoing strikes involving drones and missiles targeting Iran and Gulf Arab nations. 

However, Israel has further escalated its military operations against Hezbollah, with strikes impacting commercial and residential areas in Beirut. The Iranian parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, criticized the planned talks as "unreasonable," arguing that the U.S. has violated three of Iran's ten conditions necessary for ending hostilities. He also pointed out issues, including alleged Israeli attacks and drone incursions into Iranian airspace occurring after the ceasefire took effect, as well as the U.S. refusal to acknowledge Iranian enrichment capabilities in any final agreement. 

The latest update on the Iran conflict indicates that Iran’s foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz is open to all commercial vessels during the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. However, ships are required to follow a "coordinated route" specified by Iran's maritime authorities, according to Araghchi. It remains uncertain if Tehran will require ships to pay a fee to navigate the strait. President Donald Trump expressed gratitude to Tehran for allowing access to the strait, but noted that the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports is still in place.

President Trump announced that a deal to end the war with Iran is "very close" and that talks could resume in Pakistan soon. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is increasing troop presence in the Middle East, adding 6,000 sailors and aviators to the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier group and expecting an additional 4,200 Navy and Marine personnel by the end of the month. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group warned of a risk of returning to a hot war, as Iran retains some retaliatory capacity. The main focus of the negotiations is whether Iran will curb its nuclear activities and whether the U.S. will offer economic incentives and sanctions relief, as Democracy Now reported.

Iran is publicly indicating that it is preparing for war, the negotiations have yielded nothing, and yet everyone is quietly agreeing to resume talks in the same city, possibly by the weekend. This is what diplomacy looks like when the alternative seems worse. Tensions are rising as the world watches closely: Will the U.S. and Iran strike a deal, or are they on the brink of renewed conflict?

The writer is a freelance analyst